Predict

5K time predictor

Your recent race

Metric
h:mm:ss
km

Predicted 5K

21:21

4:16 /km

Optimistic
21:38
Expected
21:21
Conservative
20:46

Assumes you are trained for the distance. Riegel over-predicts when speed outruns endurance base.

Split ladder

Equivalent efforts
  1. 5K21:21
  2. 10K44:30
  3. Half Marathon1:38:11
  4. Marathon3:24:43

Your entered race is marked; every other row is projected from it.

Worked example

A 44:30 10K projects to a 21:21 5K at 4:16/km. Halving the distance buys about eleven seconds per kilometre.

Common questions

How accurate is a 5K prediction from a longer race?
Reliable in the sense that the endurance is clearly there, but it tends to be conservative. A 5K also demands top-end speed that a marathon never tests, so the optimistic end is realistic if you have done any fast work.
Why does a marathon predict a slower 5K than I can run?
Equivalency assumes balanced training. Endurance-heavy runners usually beat their predicted 5K once they add intervals; speed-heavy runners usually miss their predicted marathon.
Is the 5K a good input for predicting longer races?
It is the weakest input for a marathon, because it tests almost none of the endurance a marathon exposes. Use the longest race you have run recently instead.

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