Predict

10K time predictor

Your recent race

Metric
h:mm:ss
km

Predicted 10K

44:29

4:27 /km

Optimistic
43:52
Expected
44:29
Conservative
45:44

Assumes you are trained for the distance. Riegel over-predicts when speed outruns endurance base.

Split ladder

Equivalent efforts
  1. 5K21:20
  2. 10K44:29
  3. Half Marathon1:38:08
  4. Marathon3:24:37

Your entered race is marked; every other row is projected from it.

Worked example

A 21:21 5K projects to a 44:30 10K at 4:27/km. Doubling the distance costs about eleven seconds per kilometre for a runner with a normal endurance base.

Common questions

How accurate is a 10K prediction from a 5K?
Very reliable — the two distances are close enough that endurance base rarely distorts the projection. Most trained runners land within a minute.
Can I predict a 10K from a marathon time?
Yes, and it usually under-predicts. Marathon fitness carries plenty of endurance but not necessarily the speed a fast 10K needs, so treat the optimistic end as achievable with some sharpening.
Why is my predicted pace slower than my 5K pace?
Sustainable pace falls as distance rises. Riegel's 1.06 exponent turns a doubling of distance into roughly eleven seconds per kilometre.

Related calculators